It’s always worth a look when a one-time growth stock falls into value territory, and the market volatility of the past year has left its share of former high-fliers stranded well below their recent highs. Three such stocks are Monsanto (NYSE:MON), Teva Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:TEVA) and Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC). Once favorites of the press and institutional money managers alike, these stocks have quietly maintained steady fundamentals even as their valuations have come down. This disconnect presents an opportunity for longer-term investors.
3 Forgotten Stocks Worth Reconnecting With in 2012 - Monsanto
Monsanto is a case in point. The stock of this global agribusiness giant delivered a 22-bagger for investors from mid-2002 through mid-2008 — a period that saw its P/E surge from the mid-teens into the 50s. During this interval, the market became enamored with the “story” of the company capitalizing on rising global agricultural production through its genetically enhanced seeds. But Monsanto’s market value has been cut in half since its 2008 heyday thanks to rising competition, price pressures and slowing sales for its signature Roundup product. The result: a stock whose valuation no longer captures its earnings power.
According to the USDA, the average net cash income for U.S.-based farm businesses rose 17% in 2011 and is on track for another increase for 2012. Notably, the latest survey of farmer confidence showed continued strength, which obviously is a positive for suppliers such as Monsanto. The company has a strong product pipeline — including drought-tolerant corn, expected to launch in 2013 — that provides a solid foundation for earnings in the years ahead. It also should be noted that Monsanto, whose products help boost crop yields, still is in a prime position to benefit from the long-term imbalance created by the rising demand for agricultural products and the static supply of arable land. As a kicker, the stock yields a 1.7% dividend.
Despite these positives, the stock is trading at a discount to its five-year averages for all key valuation measures: P/E, price-to-book, price-to-sales and PEG. The chart also is potentially favorable with the possibility of a breakout if the stock rises above $77. Monsanto reports earnings Thursday.
3 Forgotten Stocks Worth Reconnecting With in 2012 - Teva Pharmaceuticals
Israel-based Teva, the world’s largest maker of generic drugs, rewarded investors with a total return of over 1,000% from 1999-2009. The stock has been left in the dust in the past two years, however — from its April 2010 high near $65, Teva is off nearly 40% even as the broader pharmaceutical sector has gained ground. Teva has been hit by concerns about rising competition and the potential loss of exclusivity on a key drug, but the stock is beginning to look like a value at these levels.
The IMS Institute for Health Care Infomatics is calling for the market share of branded drugs (which stood at 70% in 2005) to drop from 64% in 2010 to 53% in 2015 as the use of generics increases. In addition, a number of brand-name drugs are losing exclusivity in 2012, to the tune of a total sales volume of $28 billion. Both of these trends work in Teva’s favor.
Although Teva is a profitable company with important long-term trends working in its favor — analysts are looking for 13% EPS growth in 2012 — the stock has been left for dead. Among the numbers investors should take into account: The trailing P/E, at 12, is less than half the five-year average of 24.6. (The forward P/E is even more attractive at 7.2.) Price-to-book stands at 1.6 versus the five-year average of 2.4, while price-to-sales is at 2.1 versus 3.3. What’s more, Teva yields 1.7%, and management recently announced a buyback program worth $3 billion. With numbers like these, it looks like it finally might be time for this fallen angel to start playing catchup with its industry peers.
3 Forgotten Stocks Worth Reconnecting With in 2012 - Ericsson
By now, the broadband theme is well-known: Rising smartphone and tablet usage is creating a surge in demand for broadband capacity, and telecom operators’ ability to meet this fast-growing capacity is limited. But what seems to have been lost on investors is that Ericsson — the market-share leader in providing the equipment and services that will help operators meet demand in the years ahead — still is one of the companies that is positioned to capitalize on this trend.
Nevertheless, the growth-stock darling of the 1990s now is a value play, with a forward P/E of 10.8 (and 8.6 net of cash), a trailing price-to-sales ratio of 0.98 (versus a five-year average of 1.3%), $6.7 billion in cash and a dividend yield of 3.6%. The stock was off 11% in 2011.
It might require patience for the market to pick up on the potential value here, but a look at the total picture reveals meaningful upside potential and limited downside risk from this level.
The bottom line: All three of these somewhat-forgotten market leaders have the potential to provide market-beating returns in the year ahead, even if the broader investment environment remains challenging.
